Thursday 23 February 2012, Madrid

The US and Europe are in sustained, long-term decline - yes or no?

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The world is experiencing one of the worst economic shocks of the past century. The crisis in Europe, where some countries are near bankruptcy, and the persistent weakness in the US economy, wracked by massive unemployment and concerns over sovereign debt, have highlighted the fragility of developed economies once considered too big to fail. The already dark outlook is made more uncertain by political divisiveness that has hamstrung decision-making on both sides of the Atlantic, and growing discontent among the working and middle class that has spawned new protest movements.

The weakness in the world's largest developed economic blocs coincides with global competitiveness issues tied to the rise of China and other rapidly growing emerging economies. There is considerable doubt whether sufficient growth can be generated in the US and Europe with a labour force whose productivity is constantly shrinking. Yet, despite the massive debt problems and the policy-making challenges, non-financial corporates are healthy and accumulating cash. Can they be the source of recovery? Or have the US and Europe permanently lost their ability to produce at scale? Will the debt overhang ever be resolved?

In the first of a series of dinner debates organised by the Financial Times and Citi looking at some of the key challenges facing the world over the next 20 to 50 years, high-level strategists will argue for or against the motion: "The US and Europe are in sustained, long-term decline." The debate will feature expert speakers including Martin Wolf, the FT's Associate Editor and Chief Economics Commentator, and Peter Orszag, Vice Chairman of Global Banking for Citi, and will be chaired by Victor Mallet, the FT's Madrid Bureau Chief. Manuel Falcó, Co-Head of Global Banking, EMEA, Citi, will make the evening's opening and closing remarks.